GOP presidential candidates 2015 Bizuayehu Tesfaye via ZUMA Wire

Einschätzungen zur ersten Runde der US-Wahlen

WASHINGTON, DC – Wenn Sie den Verlauf des amerikanischen Präsidentschaftswahlkampfes verwirrend finden, liegen Sie vermutlich richtiger als jene, die bereit sind, Vorhersagen über ein Ergebnis anzustellen. Es kann an diesem Punkt, an dem beide großen Parteien davorstehen, ihre Kandidaten in Vorwahlen oder Parteikongressen auf Ebene der Einzelstaaten auszuwählen, keine Vorhersagen geben, sondern nur begründete (oder unbegründete) Mutmaßungen.

Der Ausgang des ersten wichtigen Wettstreits am 1. Februar in Iowa ist gewöhnlich schwer vorherzusagen, weil sein Ergebnis mehr von den organisatorischen Fähigkeiten abhängt als von der Popularität. Die wichtigste Frage sowohl bei den Republikanern als auch bei den Demokraten lautet, ob die Kandidaten ausreichend viele ihrer Unterstützer zu den Parteikongressen bekommen können – relativ kleinen Veranstaltungen, die des Abends und unter Winterbedingungen stattfinden.

Aufseiten der Republikaner liegen Ted Cruz und Donald Trump in Iowa und in New Hampshire, wo acht Tage später gewählt wird, Kopf an Kopf. Obwohl Trump in den nationalen Umfragen einen enormen Vorsprung hat, ist die Stärke seiner Organisation in Iowa unbekannt, und das, worauf es beim fortschreitenden Nominierungsprozess ankommt, sind die Ergebnisse auf Ebene der einzelnen Staaten. Trumps Problem ist, das viele seiner Unterstützer sich bisher noch nie an einer Wahl beteiligt haben.

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