GOP presidential candidates 2015 Bizuayehu Tesfaye via ZUMA Wire

Une évaluation du premier tour de la course à la présidence aux États-Unis

WASHINGTON, DC – Si la campagne présidentielle américaine vous rend perplexe, vous en avez sans doute une meilleure compréhension que ceux qui se hasardent à un pronostic. A ce stade, alors que les deux principaux partis s’apprêtent à choisir leur candidat lors des primaires ou des caucus dans chaque État, aucune prédiction n’est possible. Seules des suppositions éclairées, ou complètement hasardeuses, sont envisageables.

Le premier round du processus d’investiture, les caucus de l’Iowa le 1er février, est notoirement imprévisible parce qu’il dépend plus des capacités organisationnelles des candidats que de leur popularité. La question est de savoir si les candidats de chacun des camps, démocrate et républicain, pourront réunir suffisamment de supporters aux caucus, des rassemblements relativement modestes organisés en soirée dans des conditions hivernales.

Du côté républicain, Ted Cruz et Donald Trump sont au coude à coude dans les sondages, à la fois pour le caucus de l’Iowa et les primaires du New Hampshire, qui se dérouleront huit jours plus tard. Si Trump est très largement en tête dans les sondages à l’échelle nationale, la force de sa structure de campagne dans l’Iowa est inconnue et les résultats au niveau de chaque État sont le facteur déterminant dans le processus d’investiture des candidats.

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