GOP presidential candidates 2015 Bizuayehu Tesfaye via ZUMA Wire

美国大选首轮选举形势预估

华盛顿——如果你对美国总统竞选感到不解,你对选情的理解可能比预测结果者更加深入。 值此两党即将召开国家级初选或预选会议之际,任何预测都不可靠,只能根据实际情况(也有可能不根据实际情况)做出猜测。

因为更多取决于组织实力而非知名度,2月1日即将在爱荷华州举行的首轮重要选举结果往往很难预测。在共和及民主两党的竞选活动中,主要问题在于候选人能否让足够数量的支持者参加预选——即在寒冷冬夜举行的相对小规模的聚会活动。

共和党方面,特德·克鲁兹和唐纳德·特朗普在爱荷华和新罕布什尔两州的支持率均在民意调查允许的误差范围以内,其中新罕布什尔州的投票安排在爱荷华州投票8天以后。尽管特朗普在全国民调中支持率遥遥领先,但他在爱荷华的组织力量如何尚不明确,而且随着提名活动的进行要靠州一级别的结果来决定胜负。他的问题是他的许多支持者从未真正参加过选举活动。

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