Dean Rohrer

盲目预防的谬论

发自普林斯顿——许多鼓吹采取严厉措施抵御气候变化的人都将他们的观点建立在所谓“预防性原则”的基础上,即当未来可能发生无比严重的灾难时,采取行动阻止是首位的。而关于成本和收益的分析——如何平衡补救措施所耗费的成本同避免灾害所获得的收益——却变得无关紧要。必须采取措施来抵御灾难,不惜一切代价。

在此原则的指导下,人们倾向于采取大规模而且代价高昂的行动来阻止那些更加巨大,但爆发的可能性也不甚确定的灾难。如果一场灾难非常巨大,那么无论其发生的可能性有多么不确定,都必须被阻止。

由于人们对“预防性原则”的普遍依赖,世界末日的假想情节已经占据了气候变化议题的所有内容。人们可以轻易地想象出气候灾难是如此严酷,因此采取激进行动来阻止它们也是合情合理的,而激进行动的鼓吹者仅靠假象的灾难就能够轻易地对公众加以恐吓。因为没有人对引起气候变化的原因有足够了解,并进一步证明假想中的灾难根本不可能发生。

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