Силы будущего

Когда оглядываешься на неспокойный год, который подходит сейчас к концу, возникает соблазн сосредоточить внимание на той территории, которая у американского руководства получила название “расширенного Ближнего Востока” (Greater Middle East). Пересматривая связанные с ней события, безусловно, нужно вспомнить об Ираке, Израиле, Палестине – и о терроризме.

Устойчивый мир на Ближнем Востоке привел бы к большему благосостоянию и улучшению сотрудничества во всем мире. Но если посмотреть на вещи шире, проблемы Ближнего Востока представляют собой всего лишь один аспект более глубоких изменений – изменения расстановки сил в мире. Действительно, в 2004 году стали заметны глубинные перемены. Нашим глазам начали открываться “силы будущего”, если воспользоваться названием недавно вышедшей книги-бестселлера бывшего канцлера Германии Гельмута Шмидта.

Канцлер Шмидт уверен в двух тенденциях. Соединенные Штаты останутся ключевым игроком, а мощь Китая будет продолжать возрастать. С меньшей уверенностью высказывается он о будущем Европы, России и Ближнего Востока.

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