قوى المستقبل

إذا ما ألقى المرء نظرة إلى الوراء على هذا العام الهائج المضطرب الذي يوشك أن ينقضي، فلن يستطيع مقاومة إغراء التركيز على ما اتفق زعماء أميركا على تسميته بـِ "الشرق الأوسط الكبير". ومن الواضح أن هذه النظرة العامة ستأخذنا إلى قضايا مثل العراق، وإسرائيل، وفلسطين ـ والإرهاب.

إن حلول السلام الدائم في الشرق الأوسط من شأنه أن يؤدي إلى المزيد من الازدهار والتعاون على مستوى العالم. ولكن إذا ألقينا نظرة أكثر شمولاً، فسنجد أن مشاكل الشرق الأوسط لا تعبر سوى عن مظهر واحد لتحولات أكثر عمقاً تجري بين القوى التي تحكم العالم. ولقد بات من السهل أن نرى تغييرات بنيوية واضحة في عام 2004. فقد بدأنا نعاين " قوى المستقبل "، وهو تعبير استعرته من عنوان كتاب صدر مؤخراً للمستشار الألماني السابق هيلموت شميدت وجاء على رأس قائمة أفضل المبيعات.

وعلى ما يبدو أن المستشار شميدت على يقين من تطورين رئيسيين. يتلخص الأول في بقاء الولايات المتحدة كلاعب أساسي، أما الثاني فهو استمرار الصين في النمو. لكنه أقل يقيناً فيما يتصل بمستقبل أوروبا، وروسيا، والشرق الأوسط.

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