Armut und Terror

In letzter Zeit machten übereilte Feststellungen die Runde, wonach Armut Terrorismus hervorbringe. Selbstverständlich kann Armut nicht als Wurzel des Terrorismus bezeichnet werden. Dennoch liegt in diesen Behauptungen auch ein Körnchen Wahrheit. Armut ist zwar nicht die Ursache des islamischen Terrorismus, aber islamische Terroristen benutzen die Armut für ihre Zwecke. Daher muss jede brauchbare Strategie zur Terrorismusvorbeugung auch die wichtigsten Aspekte wirtschaftlicher Entwicklung einschließen.

Zunächst muss man erkennen, dass die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung vor 30 Jahren auf Abwege geriet, als die OPEC der Weltwirtschaft zwei schlimme Ölschocks bescherte. In entwickelten Ländern verschob sich die Zielrichtung von der Wachstumsförderung zur Inflationsbekämpfung. Das Wachstum der Weltwirtschaft ging (außer in Ostasien) dramatisch zurück und der Welthandel wurde um die Hälfte dezimiert.

Die OPEC-Länder wurden reich, während andere Entwicklungsländer mit nicht mehr beherrschbaren Handelsdefiziten und Verschuldung zu kämpfen hatten. In den meisten dieser Länder war das Wachstum negativ. In den achtziger und neunziger Jahren des letzten Jahrhunderts kam es in der Hälfte aller Mitgliedsländer des IWF zu schweren Finanzkrisen, wodurch diese gezwungen waren, ihre Sozialausgaben zu reduzieren. Dies vergrößerte wiederum die Armut, Ungleichheit und auch das Potenzial für sozialen Unfrieden in beträchtlichem Ausmaß.

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