Le libre-échange post-soviétique

Depuis l'effondrement de l'Union soviétique, les Etats indépendants auxquels il a donné naissance essayent de clarifier leurs relations commerciales. Mais leurs échanges commerciaux diminuent plus qu'il ne devrait, car ils n'ont pas véritablement ouvert leurs marchés.

Les douze pays membres de la Communauté d'Etats indépendants (CEI) ont signé un accord de libre-échange en 1994, mais il ne donne guère de résultats. Quand un pays réussit à exporter des marchandises dans un autre, ce dernier impose des quotas ou des taxes douanières prohibitives qui nuisent au développement économique.

La solution évidente consiste à utiliser un mécanisme de résolution des conflits. L'Organisation mondiale du commerce (OMC) dispose d'une cour d'arbitrage et peut imposer des sanctions, mais seuls quatre pays de la CEI (le Kirghizstan, la Géorgie, la Moldavie et l'Arménie) adhèrent à l'OMC. Les principales puissances économiques de la CEI (la Russie, l'Ukraine et le Kazakhstan) auraient tout intérêt à rejoindre rapidement cet organisme. Malheureusement, au lieu d'adopter des mécanismes qui ont fait preuve de leur efficacité, divers pays de la CEI inventent des mécanismes toujours plus complexes tels que l'Union douanière des Cinq, rebaptisée Communauté économique eurasienne l'année dernière quand son échec est devenu patent.

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