spence139_Yuichiro Chino_growth Yuichiro Chino

High Growth Sectors in the Post-Recovery Decade

The post-pandemic economy could well be defined by the return of robust aggregate productivity growth after 15 years of relative sclerosis. Between the increased availability of powerful new technologies and aggressive fiscal policies, the stars are aligned for a cascading sequence of rapid recovery around the world.

FORT LAUDERDALE – A multispeed economic recovery is underway, reflecting the significant cross-country variations in containing the coronavirus and acquiring and administering vaccines. But notwithstanding these differences in timing, there will soon be a cascading sequence of rapid recoveries around the world.

Sectors that had to shut down because they could not function without unsafe human-to-human proximity will now (or soon) reopen. Businesses that survived the pandemic closures (many with support from fiscal programs) will experience rapid expansion, powered by pent-up demand. Growth rates will surge for a limited period of time before subsiding toward normal levels. We will enter the post-recovery world sometime in 2022 (though it will come sooner for some than others).

For investors, policymakers, businesses, and households alike, a major question is whether and to what extent we will return to pre-pandemic growth patterns. Will we witness a shift to some markedly different set of dynamics?

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