Frankfurt stock market after Brexit vote Thomas Lohnes/Stringer

Que nous apprend la livre sterling ?

LONDRES – L’enseignement de mes 32 ans dans la finance est que le monde étrange des marchés des changes peut parfois défier la compréhension, et qu’essayer d'estimer la valeur de base ou d’équilibre de la livre sterling peut être un exercice futile.

En effet, au cours des heures grisantes qui ont suivi la fermeture des bureaux de vote pour le referendum sur le Brexit du 23 juin, la livre sterling s’est initialement échangée à un taux supérieur à 1,5 £ / 1 $. Il s’avère que ce taux de change reflétait l'hypothèse maintenant ridicule que le camp du « rester » avait gagné. La livre sterling a depuis diminué de 20% par rapport à ce pic initial, et a connu une baisse similaire par rapport à l'euro.

En dépit de ces larges variations, il est néanmoins possible d’assez bien mesurer la performance de la livre après le Brexit. Pour commencer, nous pouvons comparer sa valeur aujourd'hui à sa valeur moyenne pendant la période de la campagne du référendum, de février à juin. Selon cette perspective, la livre a connu une diminution de 13% depuis que les électeurs ont décidé que le Royaume-Uni devrait quitter l'Union européenne, ce qui reste significatif.

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