Frankfurt stock market after Brexit vote Thomas Lohnes/Stringer

那些英镑告诉我们的事

伦敦—32年的金融业经验告诉我,诡异的外汇市场有时候会让人无法理解,而如果你要估算英镑的基线,寻找均衡价值可能纯属徒劳。

事实上,在6月23日英国退欧公投投定离手后的那几个小时里,英镑一开始在1.5英镑/1美元以上的价格交易。这一汇率表明人们预计“留欧”派将胜出,现在看来,这种想法简直荒谬。随后英镑从这一初始高位下跌20%,兑欧元汇率也有类似跌幅。

尽管存在如此反差,我们确实有办法很好地估算英镑在英国退欧后的表现。首先,我们可以比较英镑现在的价值与公投进行期间(2月—6月)的平均价值。从这个角度看,英镑在选民决定英国退出欧盟后仍然大跌13%。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

To continue reading, please log in or register now. After entering your email, you'll have access to two free articles every month. For unlimited access to Project Syndicate, subscribe now.

required

By proceeding, you are agreeing to our Terms and Conditions.

Log in

http://prosyn.org/r8YspOr/zh;

Cookies and Privacy

We use cookies to improve your experience on our website. To find out more, read our updated cookie policy and privacy policy.