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¿Debe salir Gran Bretaña de la UE?

STANFORD – En el 400.° aniversario de la muerte de William Shakespeare, el Reino Unido enfrenta una pregunta existencial: ser o no ser «europeo». Cuando los británicos voten en junio para decidir si permanecerán o no en la Unión Europea, para tomar la decisión correcta tendrán que salirse de la hipérbole propuesta desde ambos lados del debate y considerar cuidadosamente qué implicara verdaderamente la Brexit para su país.

Las cuestiones principales que incidirán sobre la decisión de los votantes están relacionadas con las relaciones comerciales, la regulación y el presupuesto; la política extranjera y la seguridad; y políticas internas como la seguridad social y la inmigración. Luego tenemos cuestiones sobre los beneficios esenciales y emocionales, y el bagaje que comporta la membresía de la UE, con todas sus normas, regulaciones y burócratas. Se trata de una dura decisión, pero las cuestiones en juego no están claramente definidas.

El RU está profundamente vinculado a través del comercio con el resto de la UE, que representa la mayor parte de sus exportaciones e importaciones globales totales (cada una de ellas significa cerca del 30 % del PIB británico). La Brexit tendría por lo tanto consecuencias significativas para los flujos comerciales, no solo entre el RU y la UE, sino también para el resto del mundo. Esas consecuencias dependerán de los términos y del momento elegido para los nuevos acuerdos comerciales.

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