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La Grande-Bretagne doit-elle quitter l'UE ?

STANFORD – En un sens, le 400ème anniversaire de la mort de Shakespeare pose une question existentielle au Royaume-Uni : être ou ne pas être « européen ». Les Britanniques choisiront en juin s'ils doivent rester au sein de l'Union européenne. Pour faire le bon choix, ils devront trancher entre les deux versions de l'hyperbole qui animent les deux versants du débat, afin d'examiner avec soin ce que le « Brexit » signifie vraiment pour leur pays.

Les principales questions qui influenceront la décision des électeurs vont porter sur les relations commerciales, la réglementation et le budget ; la politique étrangère et la sécurité et enfin les mesures de politique nationales, comme les services sociaux et l'immigration. Puis viendront les questions sur les avantages réels et émotionnels et sur les bagages qui accompagnent l'adhésion à l'UE, avec toutes ses règles, ses règlements et ses bureaucrates. Le choix est difficile, mais les questions litigieuses méritent mieux qu'une réponse manichéenne.

Le Royaume-Uni est profondément lié par le commerce au reste de l'UE, qui représente la plus grande part du total des exportations et des importations mondiales de la Grande-Bretagne, ce qui correspond à environ 30% du PIB britannique. Le Brexit aurait donc des conséquences importantes sur le commerce, non seulement entre le Royaume-Uni et l'Union européenne, mais aussi dans le reste du monde. La nature de ces conséquences éventuelles repose sur les modalités et le calendrier des nouveaux accords commerciaux.

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