Christopher Furlong/ Getty Images

Improviser le Brexit

SANTA BARBARA – La panique a saisi les marchés – les actions et les obligations sont en chute libre, la livre sterling est au plus bas, la crainte d’une récession est généralisée – simplement parce qu’une petite majorité d’électeurs du Royaume-Uni a décidé que leur pays devait quitter l’Union européenne.

Les citoyens britanniques se sont prononcés et les jeux sont faits. Le nouveau Premier ministre Theresa May devra formellement annoncer le retrait du Royaume-Uni de l’UE, tel que prévu par l’article 50 du Traité de Lisbonne, et en l’espace de deux ans, le pays ne sera plus membre de l’Union européenne, que celui lui plaise ou non.

Mais cette angoisse des marchés est-elle vraiment justifiée ? On pourrait dire que les perspectives sont nettement moins sombres qu’il n’y paraît à première vue. Mon conseil est de prendre une profonde inspiration et d’adopter une vision à long terme, parce que cette histoire est loin d’être finie. En définitive, son issue pourrait être étonnamment bénigne et paradoxalement, similaire à la situation actuelle.

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