Trump Spencer Platt/Getty Images

Кризис рыночного фундаментализма

ЛОНДОН – Самым большим политическим сюрпризом 2016 года стало то, что все оказались столь удивлены. Я, безусловно, не имел никакого права оказаться застигнутым врасплох: вскоре после кризиса 2008 года я написал книгу, в которой высказал идею, что крах доверия к политическим институтам наступает примерно через пять лет после краха экономического.

Мы наблюдали эту последовательность раньше. За первым крахом глобализации, описанным К. Марксом и Ф. Энгельсом в «Манифесте Коммунистической партии» 1848 года, последовали реформистские законы, дающие беспрецедентные права рабочему классу. За крахом британского империализма после Первой мировой войны последовали «Новый курс» и модель государства всеобщего благосостояния. А вслед за крахом кейнсианской экономики после 1968 года наступила революция Тэтчер-Рейгана. В своей книге Капитализм 4.0 я утверждал, что политические потрясения сравнимого масштаба последуют за четвертым системным крахом глобального капитализма, о котором возвестил кризис 2008 года.

Когда та или иная модель капитализма успешно работает, материальный прогресс снимает политическое давление. Но когда экономика терпит неудачу, – и это не просто преходящая неудача, а симптом глубоких противоречий, – разрушительные социальные побочные эффекты капитализма могут стать политически опасными.

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