Boston Globe/Getty Images

Правильная оценка бунта популистов

КЕМБРИДЖ (США) – Во многих странах западной демократии 2016-й стал годом бунта против элит. Успех кампании за Брексит в Британии, неожиданный захват Республиканской партии США Дональдом Трампом, успех популистских партий в Германии и других странах – многим всё это видится как конец эпохи. Как выразился колумнист газеты Financial Times Филип Стивенс, «существующий мировой порядок – либеральные, основанные на соблюдении правил системы, которые возникли в 1945 году и расширились после завершения Холодной войны, попали под беспрецедентное давление. Глобализация отступает».

Но в реальности такие широкие выводы делать, наверное, преждевременно.

Некоторые экономисты объясняют нынешний всплеск популизма «гипер-глобализацией» 1990-х. Особое внимание при этом уделяется либерализации международных финансовых потоков и созданию Всемирной торговой организации (а также вступлению в ВТО Китая в 2001 году). По данным одного исследования, с 1999 по 2011 год китайский импорт уничтожил почти миллион рабочих мест в американской промышленности, а если учесть поставщиков и смежные отрасли, тогда эта цифра возрастёт до 2,4 млн.

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