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民粹主义起,拉美经济落

伦敦—美国总统特朗普总是会占领大部分新闻标题,但他其实并不是全球例外。民粹主义独裁者在全世界都在实现突破性崛起掌权,而该趋势最为迅猛的地区又莫过于拉丁美洲,墨西哥左派阿布拉多尔和巴西右翼博尔索纳罗均当选总统。美国抱怨特朗普的独裁倾向固然正确,但正如智利前财政部长安德烈斯·贝拉斯科(Andrés Velasco)所提醒,特朗普与拉丁美洲民粹主义者比起来,只是小巫见大巫。

诚然,这并不意味着墨西哥和巴西经济会得到与查韦斯及其现任强人马杜罗统治下的委内瑞拉一样的命运。查韦斯和马杜罗成功将拉丁美洲最富裕的国家——坐拥全世界四分之一的探明石油储备——变成了一个通胀率超1 000 000%、贫困率超90%的例子。委内瑞拉  3 200万人口中至少有四百万已经逃到国外,预测表明,如果马杜罗继续执政,今年这一数字可能还会翻番。委内瑞拉的困境与其说是来自特朗普时代的经济制裁,不如说是拜其自身的民粹主义领导人所赐。委内瑞拉走下坡路已有多年,其社会和经济指标的下跌远早于特朗普政府履新。

奥布拉多尔就像是二十年前魅力超凡的查韦斯,去年他凭借改善普通老百姓生活的承诺,已压倒性优势赢得大选。他的首批正是行动之一是叫停了急需的墨西哥城新机场建设——尽管该工程已经完成了30%——理由是飞机都是富人坐的。接着,他有发起了新机场项目,选址在遥远的山区,完工可能性变得更低了。

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