London Tower Bridge Daniel Berehulak/Getty Images

La racionalidad británica, a prueba

PARÍS – Si en el referendo del 23 de junio los votantes británicos deciden que su país abandone la Unión Europea, no será por razones económicas. Puede que opten por el Brexit porque desean una soberanía completa, detestan a Bruselas o quieren que los migrantes vuelvan a sus países, pero no por esperar grandes beneficios económicos.

Al principio, los partidarios del Brexit parecían contar con dos argumentos económicos importantes. El primero era el abrumador rechazo de los británicos al aporte fiscal neto de su país al resto de la UE, que en la actualidad es de un 0,4% del PGB. Desde que en 1979 la Primera Ministro Margaret Thatcher exigiera por primera vez la “devolución del dinero”, a ojos de la opinión pública los costes presupuestarios de ser miembro de la UE han sobrepasado ampliamente sus beneficios económicos.

El segundo argumento era el lamentable estado de la economía de Europa continental. En promedio, otros países de la UE están por detrás del Reino Unido en términos de crecimiento del PGB, empleo o innovación (y, en un grado incluso mayor, de Estados Unidos). Si antes ser miembro de la UE se veía como una vía de acceso a la prosperidad, hoy cada vez más se considera como un freno al progreso.

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