Riots in Brazil Victor Moriyama/ZUMA Wire

Die Politik der finanziellen Volatilität

LONDON – Vor 24 Jahren, mitten in einem hässlichen Präsidentschaftswahlkampf, fasste Bill Clintons Kampagnenmanager die Botschaft seines Kandidaten geschickt zusammen: „Es ist die Wirtschaft, Dummkopf.“ Wenn heute die Investoren versuchen zu verstehen, was hinter der extremen Volatilität der Finanzmärkte steht, gibt es eine ebenso prägnante Erklärung: Es ist die dumme Politik.

Die Märkte werden von den Zentralbanken nicht mehr unterstützt, sondern vielleicht sogar destabilisiert. Nun hoffen sie auf Hilfe durch Strukturreformen und Haushaltspolitik. Angesichts dessen müssen die aktuellen Preisbewegungen durch die Brille der Weltpolitik betrachtet werden. Und diese Betrachtung offenbart keine besonders gute Aussicht.

Nirgends ist dies eindeutiger als auf den Ölmärkten, wo Brent und Crude nach dem Zusammenbruch der Preise nur noch etwa 30 Dollar pro Barrel kosten. Dieser Absturz der Ölpreise und die damit verbundenen Deflationsängste gelten als entscheidender Einflussfaktor auf die aktuellen Markttumulte. Im Januar erreichte die Korrelation zwischen dem Preis für Crude-Öl und dem S&P 500 das höchste Niveau seit 1990.

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