Riots in Brazil Victor Moriyama/ZUMA Wire

Politika finanční volatility

LONDÝN – Před čtyřiadvaceti lety, vprostřed ošklivého soupeření před prezidentskými volbami v USA, manažer kampaně Billa Clintona výstižně shrnul poselství svého kandidáta: „Jde o ekonomiku, hlupáku,“ řekl. Dnes, kdy se investoři urputně snaží pochopit, co vyvolává extrémní volatilitu na finančních trzích, se nabízí neméně trefné vysvětlení: Jde o hloupou politiku.

Politiky centrálních bank se vychýlily od podpory trhů k jejich potenciální destabilizaci. Trhy se teď o pomoc obracejí ke strukturální reformě a fiskální politice. V tomto světle je na místě pohlížet na současné pohyby cen prizmatem geopolitiky. A není to hezký pohled.

Nikde to není zřetelnější než na trzích s ropou, kde se ceny zhroutily a ropa Brent i surová ropa teď povlávají na úrovni zhruba 30 dolarů za barel. Právě míra ropného pádu a následné deflační obavy se uvádějí jako významný faktor celkového pozdvižení na trzích. V lednu korelace mezi cenami surové ropy a indexem S&P 500 dosáhla nejvyšší hladiny od roku 1990.

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