Riots in Brazil Victor Moriyama/ZUMA Wire

سياسة التقلبات المالية

لندن ــ قبل أربعة وعشرين عاما، وفي خضم حملة انتخابات رئاسية قبيحة في الولايات المتحدة، أوجز مدير حملة بِل كلينتون ببراعة رسالة مرشحه: "إنه الاقتصاد يا غبي". واليوم، فيما يناضل المستثمرون لفهم الأسباب وراء التقلبات الشديدة في الأسواق المالية، يبرز تفسير بليغ بنفس القدر: إنها السياسة الغبية.

لقد انتقلت سياسات البنوك المركزية من دعم الأسواق إلى احتمال التسبب في زعزعة استقرارها. فالآن تلجأ الأسواق إلى الإصلاح البنيوي والسياسة المالية طلباً للمساعدة. وعلى هذا الضوء، ينبغي لنا أن ننظر إلى تحركات الأسعار الحالية من خلال طيف المنظور الجيوسياسي. وهو ليس بالمشهد اللطيف.

ويتجلى هذا على النحو الأكثر وضوحاً على الإطلاق في أسواق النفط، حيث انهارت الأسعار إلى الحد الذي جعل سعر خام برنت وكرود يحومان حول مستوى الثلاثين دولاراً للبرميل. ويستشهد المراقبون بهبوط أسعار النفط، وما يترتب عليه من مخاوف تتعلق بالانكماش، باعتباره عاملاً رئيسياً وراء الاضطرابات في السوق إجمالا. ففي يناير/كانون الثاني بلغت علاقة الارتباط بين أسعار النفط الخام ومؤشر ستاندرد آند بورز أعلى مستوياتها منذ عام 1990.

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