Transitions arabes sous conditions

CAMBRIDGE – Ces derniers temps, les missions du Fond monétaire internationale vont et reviennent du Moyen-Orient sans parvenir à conclure d’accords. Dans le même temps, la Tunisie, l’Égypte, la Libye et le Yémen sont de plus en plus polarisés selon des lignes politiques, sociales et sectaires qui mettent sérieusement en péril leur avenir démocratique. Avec la perspective additionnelle d’États défaillants en Irak et en Syrie, la communauté internationale ne peut plus se permettre de rester sur la ligne de touche.

Elle doit de toute urgence créer un mécanisme politique pour aider ces pays à échapper au bourbier dans lequel ils sont en train de sombrer. Sans un soutien adéquat, les soulèvements populaires pour la liberté, la justice et la dignité déboucheront sur le chaos, l’insécurité et une débâcle économique.

Contrairement à la situation après la chute du Mur de Berlin, lorsque la Communauté européenne était venue en aide aux pays d’Europe de l’Est, la tragédie du monde arabe tient en partie à l’absence d’un plan détaillé de réformes institutionnelles et des ressources pour les mettre en œuvre. Le Partenariat de Deauville lancé lors du sommet du G8 est une initiative bancale, depuis longtemps dépassée par les événements. Les besoins financiers de la région sont bien plus importants que ce que ce partenariat est en mesure de fournir, et de plus, le soutien ne doit être seulement financier, mais également politique. Les réformes économiques peuvent par contre attendre.

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