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政治衰退中的全球复苏

米兰—每逢夏天,当生活节奏慢下来的时候,就有空间去思考根本性的问题。最近占据我的脑海的一个重要谜题是,在大量发生政治瘫痪的情况下,经济和金融市场表现仍然保持相对强势。

如今,世界主要经济体正在经历稳定的复苏,尽管时不时会发生反覆。诚然,经济表现远远没有达到充分释放潜力的程度:根据立足点的不同,你可以看到产出缺口、过度举债、脆弱的资产负债表、投资不足和长期非债务责任资金缺口等现象。但是,金融市场没有表现出任何躁动迹象,即便货币刺激正在逐渐退出。

但与此同时,政治环境似乎正在恶化。极化不断加剧,部分原因在于越来越多的人反对全球化及其所导致的不平衡的增长模式。比如,在美国,皮尤研究中心(Pew Research Center)的报告显示,人们不但意见完全相左;并且完全失去了尊重。

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