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Crear estabilidad para el crecimiento indio

MUMBAI – En sus esfuerzos por estimular la demanda mediante políticas monetarias cada vez más agresivas, las economías avanzadas les han impuesto riesgos a los países de mercados emergentes como la India. Por cierto, un día enfrentamos crecientes ingresos de capital, en tanto los inversores entran en una modalidad de asumir riesgos, y salidas de capital al día siguiente, cuando desactivan el botón del riesgo.

La India respondió a esta volatilidad externa intentando crear una plataforma doméstica de estabilidad macroeconómica sobre la cual generar crecimiento. El último presupuesto central de la India enfatiza la prudencia fiscal, adhiere a compromisos pasados y apunta a reformas estructurales, especialmente en agricultura. La consolidación fiscal también ha ayudado a mantener el déficit de cuenta corriente por debajo del 1% del PIB. Es más, se logró mantener la inflación dentro del rango de la meta oficial. Y el parlamento ha creado un comité de política monetaria para el Banco de la Reserva de la India (RBI por su sigla en inglés), que debería asegurar que se incluyan múltiples visiones en la política y que se mejore la continuidad.

También debemos resolver la situación de los préstamos morosos de los bancos para que sus balances tengan espacio para una nueva actividad crediticia. A diferencia de países más desarrollados, la India no tiene un sistema de quebrantos efectivo (aunque la Cámara Baja del Parlamento acaba de aprobar un proyecto de ley para crear uno). Pero, al usar algunos mecanismos de "resolución extrajudicial" diseñados por el RBI, y con respaldo de capital del gobierno, para marzo 2017 los bancos ya deberían tener balances bien aprovisionados.

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