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为印度增长营造稳定

孟买—发达经济体在通过日益激进的货币政策刺激需求时给印度等新兴市场国家带来了风险。事实上,昨天我们还因为投资者进入“冒险”模式而面临资本大量流入,今天,投资者切换成避险模式,资本也大量流出。

印度对这一外部波动性的反应是试图建立 一个国内宏观经济稳定平台,以此为基础构建增长。印度最新中央预算强调财政审慎,恪守过去的承诺,并致力于结构改革(特别是农业)。财政整合有助于将经常项目赤字限制在GDP的1%以内。此外,通货膨胀被限定在官方目标范围内。议会还为印度储备银行(RBI)成立了一个货币政策委员会,该委员会将确保政策考虑多重观点并改善持续性。

我们还必须解决银行的不良贷款问题,从而让它们的资产负债表有空间进行新的借贷。和大部分发达国家不同,印度没有有效破产制度(尽管 议会下院刚刚通过了制定有效破产制度的法案)。但是,利用RBI所制定的“法院外办法”,在政府资本的支持下,银行将在2017年3月完成资产负债表的优化。

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