Comments 13

波兰成功的失败者

Oct 26, 2015 Jacek Rostowski

华沙——拥有欧洲（实际是整个经合组织）最佳经济记录的政府怎会遭到怀疑欧洲、奉行民族主义且不懂经济的反对党的羞辱——短短一年前人们还认为反对党不可能在选举中获胜。这是10月25日公民纲领党政府失败后，很多波兰人和他们的朋友急于想知道的问题。如果创造就业机会和提高收入都不能让你重新当选，那什么才能？

当然，反对党获胜的原因之一非常普遍：随着时间的推移，人们渴望变化，而公民纲领党从2007年来一直权力在握。而且中东欧后共产主义国家对现状的不耐烦可能更加强烈，那里的大部分社会、政治和经济秩序尚未被普遍接受。事实上，公民纲领党的唐纳德·图斯克是后共产主义首位竞选连任的波兰首相。

此外，随着政党执政时间的延长，强势人物往往会被弱势人物所取代。公民纲领党用科帕奇取代图斯克参与竞选，此外的几次“换人”也是一样。

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Abu Nudnik Nov 1, 2015

Good question. Ditto the recent election in Canada.
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Burkhard Luber Nov 1, 2015

why are you not mentioning the rising xenophobia in Poland as important reason for the poll results?
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Richard Berkeley Oct 31, 2015

Mr. Rostowski overlooks three points. Firstly, the massive EU funding which has underwritten Poland's economic success for which he claims credit. When this subsidy ends the outlook is far from optimistic because the reforms needed to sustain the economy have not taken place, most of all in education. Secondly, the sleaze which marred PO's image, to which he contributed in no small manner, rendered the party unelectable regardless of its record. Thirdly, the gaping hole in the ZUS social security budget cannot be ignored and is set to get worse by PiS. Mr. Rostowski must be relieved to know that he is no longer electable.
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Mirek Fatyga Oct 28, 2015

This election proves that power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely. PO was in power too long, her top officials were clearly more interested in European career than their own country, damaging scandals were just a symptom of this disease. The problem is that PiS offers no alternative, if anything it is a throwback to old arguments about dirty dealings during the transition from communism to the present state that is by now best left to historians as the participants are beginning to die off anyway. In other words, Poland is entering a potentially dangerous period of political transition.
As a first generation emigrant (I left Poland in 1982) I can attest from personal experience that Poland has changed to the better in the last twenty years. Nonetheless, logic and math suggest that Poland reached the end of the road it can travel on as a country of well educated cheap labor also trying to run a modern day European welfare state. Poland survived the 2008-2009 crisis reasonably well because she still had her own currency which promptly devalued by close to the factor of two. This was a one time advantage though which can easily turn into a long term disadvantage if European integration survives current trouble and resumes. The remaining low hanging fruit is reform of taxation and the legal system. What can come after that to boost Poland to the next stage of growing affluence is a good question, which should be the key question for the next generation in Polish politics.
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Val Samonis Oct 27, 2015

Re: During Tusk’s premiership, the government was perversely reluctant to claim credit for Poland’s economic success.
On the contrary, if the govt did not waste time and resources on the extensive communist-style propaganda ("PL the only green island in the EU/world", etc), it would have had at least try to develop a national strategy on how to get out of the middle-income trap, etc. Now the "good uncle in Brussels" (EU aid and posh jobs) died and the "easing" by beggar-thy-neighbor policies (PL still has its own currency) exhausted itself. The only direction for PL economy and demography is down, unfortunately.
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Joe Cali Oct 27, 2015

I'm a first generation American whose mother is from Lomza. I do not claim to know all the intricacies of the Polish political environment but do follow closely. I just find it amusing that, like in the US, liberals rarely criticize their own ideals and agenda. Or in this case, They lay blame on a gullible and indecisive voter who has been successfully tricked by the empty promises of the xenophobic conservative party. Liberalism is the same regardless of borders or nationality. Laughable.
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j. von Hettlingen Oct 26, 2015

Jacek Rostowski, as Poland’s Minister of Finance and Deputy Prime Minister from 2007 to 2013 must be disheartened by the defeat of his party, which has enjoyed "the best economic record in Europe (indeed in the entire OECD)". The "Civic Platform" found itself "humiliated at the polls by a Euroskeptic, nationalistic, and economically illiterate opposition." No doubt the victory of the "Law and Justice" party must urge "many Poles, and friends of Poland" to ask the question: "If creating jobs and boosting incomes can’t get you re-elected, what can?"
What is astonishing is that Rostowski in his whole commentary does not mention the name of the opposition party -"Law and Justice" - and that of its key players - Jarosław Kaczyński and Beata Szydło, who is likely to be appointed prime minister. Perhaps he seeks to send a signal of disdain to the opposition. Former prime minister Jarosław Kaczyński is a controversial figure, who between 2005-2007 governed in tandem with his twin brother, the late president Lech Kaczyński, who died in a plane crash in Smolensk, western Russia, in 2010. He still harbours deep bitterness towards the post-war Germany. In 2007 a new voting system was proposed, which would link voting strength to population, and Poland saw the number of its war dead as highly relevant.
"We are only demanding one thing, that we get back what was taken from us," Prime Minister Jaroslaw Kaczyński told national radio. "If Poland had not had to live through the years of 1939-45, Poland would today be looking at the demographics of a country of 66 million."
Although the combative leader Kaczyński was not running as prime minister and instead nominated Szydło, a more moderate face, observers said he could take on a top job in the coming months. He was recently criticised for suggesting that migrants could bring diseases and parasites to Poland. In the past he also hinted that the plane crash could have been Russia's work. With his return to power international tensions will be more the rule rather than the exception. Indeed, many fear Poland under Kaczyński may become another Hungary under Viktor Orbán, who share same rightwing extremist views. Law and Justice won big because they offered simple, concrete policies for many in Poland who feel left out by the country's impressive economic growth. It offered higher child care benefits and tax breaks for the needy.
After eight years in power many Poles had grown weary of the governing centrist Civic Platform's unfulfilled promises, scandals. Some say the party's defeat has much its aloofness to thank for, It has "failed to explain to Poles its own view of that choice", even though "the opposition’s program lacked credibility". If Civic Platform learns from its own mistakes, it can make a comeback in future elections, especially when the Poles "want change" again.
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M M Oct 26, 2015

This proves how out of touch are the current politicians /leaders from reality and their power base.
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Jaroslaw Przybyl Oct 26, 2015

Civic Platform didn't deliver many promises they made in 2007. It has Some of them did not require even additional funds like tax reform. Poland has one of the most complex and complicated tax system in the world. It's also low in the doing business ranks. The quality of public services is still poor. Mentioned in the article lack of substantial debt accumulation was achieved partly by nationalizing most of pension fund assets. Otherwise we would have breached the constitutional 60% debt/GDP threshold long time ago. The author himself was responsible for this very "reform" and the arguments used were annoying at least. After the market crashed in reaction for the "reform" the author said in the media that now everybody could see that the equity market was a casino and pensions funds were a risky bet (by the way Poland is probably the only place in the world where pension fund assets consist in more than 80% of equity holdings. Treasury bonds are not allowed!). Then we had a series of scandals and very little reaction from the party. The people involved were put away one year later during the campaign... To cut the long story short they treated voters like a bunch of idiots but as they say pride comes before a fall.
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Tom Nowicki Oct 26, 2015

As an expat I find it deeply embarrassing to see Poles falling for the blatantly populist drivel offered by PiS. What happened to scepticism - our most prized national characteristic ?
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Maciej Bugajski Oct 26, 2015

There is no dissonance, higher cost of living, longer work day, and being forced to move out of home town, and rent much more expensive apartments ate all the growth.At least thats my personal observation based on mine, and my friends lifes
- Maciej Bugajski Oct 26, 2015
  
  and i forgot zero hour contracts, under which most of the youth works
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Michael Public Oct 26, 2015

Always nice to hear from the exiting party that there has indeed been some kind of innocent mistake and they are actually really the good guys who are just misunderstood.
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Daniel Cole Oct 26, 2015

I'm surprised that you did not mention the widely reported 2014 government scandals, which came fairly close to bringing down Tusk's government before he became EU Council President. Is it your opinion that those scandals played no role in the general election outcome?
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波兰成功的失败者

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