Peut-on vraiment jouer à la roulette russe avec le changement climatique ?

GENEVE – Le scepticisme ambiant et l’impasse des négociations aboutissent à une annonce selon laquelle la conférence de Copenhague sur le changement climatique ne résultera à aucun accord global complet sur le climat. Décevant ? Certainement. Mais ce sommet de Copenhague a toujours été sensé être une étape transitoire. Le plus important est de déterminer quelle sera la prochaine étape.

Le mot « lendemain » est le plus souvent associé aux termes « gueule de bois. » Un non-engagement pourrait bien se transformer en une gueule de bois mondiale, et pas seulement pour une journée. Les citoyens du monde, lassés des prédictions apocalyptiques, espéraient tous un miracle à Copenhague. L’ombre d’un échec pourrait donc provoquer une perte de confiance, peut-être même irréversible, vis à vis de nos responsables politiques. Rien d’étonnant donc que nos gouvernements aient cherché à précieusement préserver nos attentes.

Les décisionnaires n’ont pas vraiment réalisé à quel point nous étions proches du ‘point de basculement’ climatique. Mais alors qu’un emballement climatique demeure un risque, l’emballement politique est d’ors et déjà un fait. Les négociations officielles sont à mille lieux de la réalité. Selon les toutes dernières recherches scientifiques, les propositions qui font actuellement l’objet des négociations entraineraient un réchauffement de plus de 4 degrés dans ce siècle, soit le double du chiffre retenu précédemment par le G8 et les autres responsables politiques. Il y a donc plus de 50% de probabilité pour que le climat planétaire dépasse son point de basculement.

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