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欧洲的守势

伦敦—历史上最可怕的时期往往是权力真空期,即老王驾崩到新王继位之间的时期。如安东尼奥·葛兰姆西(Antonio Gramsci)在其《狱中笔记》(Prison Notebooks)所言,当“老王将逝、新王未生”时,混乱、战争乃至死亡纷至沓来。2016年的错位与混乱和葛兰姆西写《狱中笔记》的两次大战之间无法相提并论,但也显然是权力真空的症候。

冷战结束后,世界通过美国所主管的安全秩序和欧洲所启发的法律秩序维持。但是,如今,这两大秩序都在消失,而能够取而代之的候选者尚未浮现。事实上,与1989年不同,这不是一场一种类型的制度的危机。巴西、中国、俄罗斯和土耳其情况各异,但都出现了严重的政治和经济压力。

即使唐纳德·特朗普当选总统的噩梦被成功避免——这种可能性越来越大——美国也不再能够成为世界警察。俄罗斯、伊朗和中国等强国正在乌克兰、叙利亚和南海试探美国的反应。而土耳其、沙特阿拉伯、波兰和日本等美国的盟国正在构建独立自主的外交政策,以备美国无法或不愿承担此前的责任。

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