¿Un paso más hacia Brexit?

LONDRES – El referéndum sobre la independencia de Escocia, que se celebrará el  próximo 18 de septiembre, llega en un momento en el que aumenta la oposición en el Reino Unido a su permanencia en la Unión Europea. Es algo importante, porque Escocia es la base más sólida de sentimiento proeuropeo en el Reino Unido.

Por ejemplo, una encuesta hecha en fecha anterior de este año determinó que, si el pasado mes de junio se hubiera celebrado un referéndum en todo el Reino Unido sobre la continuidad de su pertenencia a la UE, el 47,1 por ciento habría votado a favor de la salida y el 39,4 por ciento a favor de la permanencia, pero una encuesta de opinión hecha en febrero de 2014 mostró que en Escocia el 48,7 por ciento habría votado a favor de la permanencia del Reino Unido en la UE y el 35,4 por ciento a favor de la salida. Otras encuestas de opinión han mostrado una actitud constante y marcadamente más positiva para con la UE en Escocia que en Inglaterra.

Naturalmente, resulta prematuro sacar conclusiones definitivas de esas cifras. El referéndum sobre la salida de la UE que ha propuesto el Primer Ministro, David Cameron podría no celebrarse, independientemente del éxito (sea cual fuere el significado de este término) de su prometida “renegociación” de las condiciones de la permanencia de Gran Bretaña, pero, a consecuencia de diversas cuestiones aparentemente menores, la probabilidad de la salida de Gran Bretaña parece estar aumentando, lo que modifica fundamentalmente la importancia de la votación en Escocia.

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