英国退出又近一步?

伦敦—9月18日举行的苏格兰独立公投正逢英国留在欧盟反对声浪日益高涨之时。这一点十分重要,因为苏格兰是英国亲欧洲情绪最强的地区。

比如,今年早些时候举行的民调表明,如果在7月在英国进行关于欧盟成员地位的公投,那么47.1%将支持退出,39.4%的人支持留在欧盟。但2014年2月的民调显示,在苏格兰,48.7%的人会支持英国留下欧盟,35.1%把票投给退出。其他民调也一致表明,苏格兰对欧盟的态度比英格兰积极得多。

当然,光凭这些数字得不出笃定的结论。首相卡梅伦所提出的退出欧盟公投也许根本不会发生,不管他所承诺的英国成员资格条件“重新谈判”是否成功(也不管这意味着什么)。但是,拜众多表面上较为次要的问题所赐,英国退出欧盟的可能性似乎在增加——而这让苏格兰投票的结果变得更加重要了。

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