Two hands holding a US dollar

美联储渐进主义的危险

纽黑文—现在,大家已经见怪不怪了。在经历了长期的反常货币宽松后,美联储终于开始了漫长的回归正常化之旅。现在,它已经迈出了使其基准政策利率——联邦基金利率——回到既不会带来刺激,又不会制约美国经济的水平的第一步。

大部分金融市场参与者都为这一策略欢呼雀跃。事实上,这是个危险的错误。美联储在重复其上一次正常化运动的剧本——2001—2003年反常宽松期之后的2004—2006年渐进式升息。前一次渐进主义为2008—2009年的灾难性金融危机和可怕衰退奠定了条件,而现在,再次发生可能导致更加漫长的正常化过程的事故的风险正在积累。

问题产生的原因是美联储和其他主要央行一样,现在已经成为金融市场的创造物,而非实体经济的捍卫者。这一转变从20世纪80年代末开始,当时,货币纪律解决了通胀难题,美联储面临着新的挑战。

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