Two hands holding a US dollar

مخاطر تدرجية الاحتياطي الفيدرالي

نيوهافين ــ لقد أصبحت هذه الممارسة معتادة إلى حد كبير الآن. فبعد فترة طويلة من الملاءمة النقدية غير العادية، بدأ بنك الاحتياطي الفيدرالي الأميركي مسيرته الطويلة للعودة إلى التطبيع. وقد اتخذ الآن أول خطوة نحو إعادة سعر الفائدة الأساسي ــ سعر الفائدة على الأموال الفيدرالية ــ إلى المستوى الذي لا يحفز ولا يقيد الاقتصاد الأميركي.

وقد أشاد غالبية المشاركين في الأسواق المالية بهذه الاستراتيجية. بيد أنها في حقيقة الأمر خطأ بالغ الخطورة. ويبدو أن بنك الاحتياطي الفيدرالي الأميركي يحاول تكرار نفس نص حملة التطبيع الأخيرة ــ رفع أسعار الفائدة التدريجي في الفترة من 2004 إلى 2006 في أعقاب فترة من الملاءمة النقدية غير العادية في الفترة 2001-2003. وكما مهدت هذه التدرجية السابقة الساحة لاندلاع أزمة مالية طاحنة فضلاً عن الركود المروع في الفترة 2008-2009، فالآن هناك خطر متصاعد بوقوع حادث آخر على ما يَعِد بأن يكون طريقاً أطول إلى التطبيع.

وتنشأ هذه المشكلة لأن بنك الاحتياطي الفيدرالي، مثله في ذلك كمثل البنوك المركزية الكبرى، تحول الآن إلى مخلوق من صنع الأسواق المالية وليس قيماً على الاقتصاد الحقيقي. وكان هذا التحول جارياً منذ أواخر ثمانينيات القرن العشرين، عندما تسبب الانضباط النقدي في القضاء على التضخم ووجد بنك الاحتياطي الفيدرالي نفسه في مواجهة تحديات جديدة.

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