2005 müssen wir für die Vergangenheit bezahlen

Der Anfang eines jeden Jahres ist die Hauptsaison für Wirtschaftsprognostiker. Mit wenigen Ausnahmen versuchen die Wall-Street-Ökonomen eine so optimistische Interpretation zu geben, wie es die Daten zulassen: Sie wollen, dass ihre Kunden Aktien kaufen, und schwarz malende Prognostiker tragen wenig zum Verkauf bei.

Doch selbst die Händler sagen für 2005 eine schwächere amerikanische Wirtschaft voraus als für 2004. Ich stimme dem zu und bin eigentlich noch pessimistischer: 2005 beginnen wir unter Umständen, für vergangene Fehler zu bezahlen.

Die größte globale wirtschaftliche Unsicherheit ist der Ölpreis. Den Ölproduzenten ist es offensichtlich nicht gelungen, den steigenden Bedarf in China vorherzusehen – so weit zur Weisheit und Weitsicht der privaten Märkte. Bereitstellungsprobleme im Nahen Osten (und Nigeria, Russland und Venezuela) spielen auch eine Rolle, wobei George W. Bushs Missgeschick im Irak für noch mehr Instabilität gesorgt hat. Während die Preise im Vergleich zu ihren Spitzenwerten etwas gefallen sind, hat die OPEC deutlich gemacht, dass sie nicht vorhat, starke Preissenkungen zuzulassen.

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