偿还旧债的2005年

新年伊始总是经济预测的高潮。由于对来年经济走势期望不高,华尔街的经济学家们试图在数据允许范围内对经济作最乐观的解读:他们要客户购买股票,然而悲观的经济预测却使得股票销售一落千丈。

但是即使是销售人员也预计2005美国经济将比2004年更为衰弱。我完全同意,并完全站在悲观主义者一边:从2005年开始我们将为过去的错误付出代价。

石油价格是全球经济最大的不确定因素。很明显,石油产商没有预料到中国对石油的需求增长会如此之快,远远超过私营市场的智囊团和预言家们的预计。中东石油供应问题(以及尼日利亚、俄罗斯和委内瑞拉)也起了一定作用,特别是在乔治W·布什失败的伊拉克政策带来更多不稳定因素后。尽管石油价格比最高峰时有所下降,石油输出国组织(OPEC)已明确表态不准备下调油价。

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