回避全球贸易规则是危险的

日内瓦—在过去半个世纪中,世界一直在经历“大趋同”,发展中国家人均收入增长比发达国家快出将近三倍。但2013年的发展态势表明,促成这一进步的开放贸易机制陷入了严重的危机,多边贸易谈判的停滞滋生了大量“优惠贸易协议”(preferential trade agreement,PTA),其中就包括有史以来规模最大的两个贸易谈判——跨太平洋合作伙伴关系(TPP)和跨大西洋贸易和投资合作伙伴关系(TTIP)。

关贸总协定及其继承者世贸组织所制定的规则和规范奠定了出口拉动型增长模式的基础,这一模式让发展中国家的数百万人民摆脱了贫困。讽刺的是,发展中大国崛起成为具系统重要性国家正是当前多边贸易谈判陷入僵局的核心原因。

发达国家指出,新兴经济体应该采取互惠主义,建立与它们相似的贸易机制。新兴经济体反驳道,它们的人均收入仍远低于发达国家,要应对多种多样的发展挑战,它们需要在贸易责任问题上保持灵活性。由此造成的僵局让开放全球经济带来的主要问题得不到有意义的讨论,这些问题包括非关税措施、出口限制、电子商务、汇率和气候变化相关政策对贸易的影响等。

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