Forest and industrial field with pollution overhead

Dalle buone intenzioni alla profonda decarbonizzazione

NEW YORK – Sulla scia della Conferenza sui cambiamenti climatici delle Nazioni Unite (COP21) tenutasi a Parigi, oltre 150 governi hanno presentato dei piani per ridurre le emissioni di carbonio entro il 2030. Molti osservatori si chiedono se tali riduzioni sia abbastanza profonde. Ma c’è un’altra domanda ancor più importante: il percorso scelto fino al 2030 riuscirà a porre le basi per mettere fine alle emissioni di gas serra entro la fine del secolo?

In base al consenso scientifico, la stabilizzazione del clima richiede la piena decarbonizzazione dei nostri sistemi energetici ed emissioni zero dei gas serra entro il 2070. Il G-7 ha riconosciuto che la decarbonizzazione – l’unico porto sicuro per i disastrosi cambiamenti climatici – è l’obiettivo finale di questo secolo. E molti capi di stato provenienti dal G-20 e da altri paesi hanno pubblicamente dichiarato le proprie intenzioni di intraprendere questa strada.

Eppure i paesi riunitisi alla COP21 non stanno ancora negoziando il processo di decarbonizzazione. Stanno facendo dei passi piuttosto modesti, verso il 2025 o il 2030, chiamati Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC, “contributi volontari definiti a livello nazionale”). Gli INDC degli Stati Uniti, ad esempio, prevedono che il paese riduca del 26-28% le emissioni di CO2 entro il 2025 rispetto ai valori del 2005.

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