Forest and industrial field with pollution overhead

从美好愿望到深度脱碳

纽约——在巴黎联合国气候变化大会(COP21)召开之前,150多个国家政府提交了截止2030年的碳减排方案。许多观察家都在询问上述减排措施是否充分。但还有一个更重要的问题:我们所选择的这条道路到2030年是否真能为本世纪末结束温室气体排放打下基础?

按照科学界的共识,气候稳定需要到2070年左右能源系统实现彻底脱碳和温室气体净排放为零。七国集团已经认识到脱碳——即灾难性气候变化的唯一避风港——是人类本世纪的终极目标。二十国集团及其他国家的众多国家元首已经公开宣布要实现这一目标。

但巴黎联合国气候变化大会的与会国仍尚未启动脱碳谈判。他们正在谈判截止2025年或2030年的更为温和的措施,上述措施被称为预期国家确定贡献(INDC)。以美国的INDC为例,美国承诺到2025年实现二氧化碳排放在2005年的基础上降低26-28%。

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