Eiffel Tower.

Prejuzgar París

COPENHAGUE – La Conferencia de las Naciones Unidas sobre el Cambio Climático en París que tendrá lugar más adelante este mes está siendo anunciada como una oportunidad para salvar al planeta. No lo es. Como demuestro en un nuevo artículo científico con revisión de pares, aún si tiene éxito, el acuerdo que se logre en París solo reduciría las temperaturas para 2100 en 0,05 °C. La suba del nivel del mar solo se reduciría 1,3 centímetros.

Esto puede resultar sorprendente, continuamente escuchamos que todos los países han hecho compromisos importantes para reducir las emisiones de CO2, las llamadas «Contribuciones Determinadas a Nivel Nacional» o INDC, por su sigla en inglés. Según la jefa climática de la ONU, Christiana Figueres, «las INDC pueden limitar el aumento previsto de la temperatura en 2,7 °C para 2100; de ninguna manera es suficiente, pero sí es mucho menos que los 4, 5 o más grados de calentamiento que muchos proyectaron antes».

Figueres sugirió que el acuerdo de París reducirá el calentamiento en casi 2 °C, de 4,5 °C a 2,7 °C. Aunque formuló su declaración cuidadosamente para no decirlo realmente, eso fue, como era de esperarse, lo que la mayoría de la gente escuchó. Pero la reducción está compuesta casi en su totalidad por números inventados e ilusiones.

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