Eiffel Tower.

Ein Vor-Urteil der Pariser Klimakonferenz

KOPENHAGEN – Die Ende dieses Monats beginnende UN-Klimakonferenz in Paris wird als Chance zur Rettung des Planeten gepriesen. Das ist sie aber nicht. Wie ich in einer von Experten begutachteten wissenschaftlichen Publikation aufzeige, würde man mit dem in Paris erzielten Abkommen, selbst im Falle seines Erfolgs, die Temperatur im Jahr 2100 um lediglich 0,05° Celsius senken. Der Anstieg der Meeresspiegel würde nur um 1,3 Zentimeter reduziert werden.

Das kommt vielleicht überraschend, denn ständig hören wir von den wichtigen Bekenntnissen der Länder zur Reduktion ihrer CO2-Emissionen – von den sogenannten „nationalen Klimaschutz-Zusagen“. Laut Angaben der Leiterin des UN-Klimasekretariats, Christiana Figueres, „ist es mit den Zusagen möglich, den prognostizierten Temperaturanstieg bis zum Jahr 2100 auf ungefähr 2,7ºC zu begrenzen, wobei dies keineswegs ausreichend, aber doch um um einiges weniger ist, als die geschätzten vier, fünf oder noch mehr Grad, die zuvor vielerorts vorausgesagt worden waren.“

Figueres führte aus, dass die Erderwärmung aufgrund des Pariser Abkommens um beinahe 2°C, von 4,5°C auf 2,7°C reduziert werden könne. Obwohl ihre Formulierung so gewählt war, dass sie diese Aussage in dieser Art nicht explizit traf, wurde es von den meisten Zuhörern genau so verstanden. Doch diese Berechnung der Temperatursenkung beruht fast ausschließlich auf erfundenen Zahlen und Wunschdenken.

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