The Asahi Shimbun/Getty Images

¿Por qué los renovables no alcanzan?

NUEVA DELHI – En las Naciones Unidas en Nueva York el 22 de abril, los líderes mundiales ratificaron el acuerdo global contra el cambio climático alcanzado en París el pasado diciembre. Ciento noventa y cinco países, desde los más ricos hasta los más pobres, ahora han acordado limitar el calentamiento global bien por debajo de 2°C arriba de los niveles preindustriales, con el objetivo de no superar 1.5°C. También se han comprometido a realizar "contribuciones nacionales determinadas" (INDC por su sigla en inglés) para limitar o reducir las emisiones de gases de tipo invernadero para 2030. Este es un logro importante, pero está lejos de ser suficiente.

En efecto, inclusive si se alcanzaran todos los objetivos de las INDC, el mundo seguiría encaminado hacia un posible calentamiento de unos 2,7-3,4°C sobre los niveles preindustriales. Para mantener el calentamiento muy por debajo de 2°C, las emisiones en 2030 debe ser más de 30% inferiores a las previstas en las INDC.

Este será un desafío enorme, dada la necesidad de hacer avances importantes en materia de desarrollo económico en el mismo período. Antes de que este siglo termine, deberíamos intentar lograr que toda la gente del mundo -probablemente más de 10.000 millones de personas en ese momento- goce de los niveles de vida del que hoy sólo disfruta el 10% más rico de la población. Eso exigirá un gigantesco incremento del consumo de energía. El africano promedio, por ejemplo, hoy usa aproximadamente un tercio de la energía que consume el europeo promedio. Pero para 2050, debemos reducir las emisiones relacionadas con la energía un 70% con respecto a los niveles de 2010, y tal vez hagan falta mayores recortes para alcanzar un nivel cero neto de emisiones para 2060.

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