The Asahi Shimbun/Getty Images

光有可再生能源是不够的

新德里—4月22日,在纽约联合国,世界领导人签署了去年12月在巴黎达成的全球气候协定。从最富裕国家到最贫穷国家在内的一百九十五个国家同意将全球变暖幅度限制在前工业化水平以上2℃以内,目标则是不超过1.5℃。他们还承诺做出“各国自主确定贡献”(INDC)以限制或减少2030年温室气体排放。这是一个重大成就,但还远远不够。

事实上,即使INDC目标实现,世界的最终变暖幅度将达到前工业化水平个以上2.7-3.4°C 。要将升温幅度限制在2℃以内,2030年排放量就必须比INDC的目标水平减少30%。

考虑到在此期间经济发展所需要实现的重大跨越,这是一个艰巨的挑战。在本世纪结束前,我们应该让全世界人民——也许当时已经超过一百亿——实现目前只有最富裕的10%人口所享有的生活水平。这意味着能源消费量的巨大增加。比如,如今普通非洲人的能源使用量只有普通欧洲人的十分之一。到2050年,我们必须在让能源相关排放在2010年水平的基础上减少70%,而要实现2060年净零排放,则需要进一步减少。

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