Global warming ice caps melting Mario Tama / Getty Images

Радикальный реализм и изменение климата

БЕРЛИН – Традиционная политика по определению плохо приспособлена к подготовке фундаментальных перемен. Но в декабре прошлого года в Париже правительства 196 стран признали необходимым не допустить, чтобы глобальное потепление превысило доиндустриальные уровни на 1,5°C. Поставив эту цель, они, тем самым, пообещали провести как раз такую фундаментальную трансформацию. Для её достижения потребуется преодолеть серьёзные политические трудности, поскольку некоторые из предлагаемых решений могут в итоге принести больше вреда, чем пользы.

Одна из стратегий, которая сейчас стала очень популярной, предполагает подготовку масштабного технологического вмешательства с целью поставить под контроль глобальный термостат. Сторонники геоинженерных технологий утверждают, что обычные меры адаптации к глобальному потеплению и смягчения его эффекта просто не позволят снизить объёмы выбросов парниковых газов настолько быстро, чтобы можно было предотвратить потепление до опасного уровня. По их мнению, для уменьшения ущерба и гуманитарных бедствий необходимы такие технологии, как, например, «улавливание и хранение углерода» (carbon capture and storage, сокращённо CCS).

Межправительственная группа экспертов по изменению климата, похоже, согласна с этим мнением. В своём пятом оценочном докладе она предлагает сценарии достижения поставленных в Париже климатических целей, опираясь на концепцию «отрицательных выбросов», то есть на возможность выкачивания избытка углекислого газа из атмосферы.

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