Global warming ice caps melting Mario Tama / Getty Images

Realismo radical relativamente às alterações climáticas

BERLIM – A política convencional, por definição, não está devidamente preparada para conceber uma mudança fundamental. No entanto, em Dezembro passado em Paris, 196 governos chegaram a acordo sobre a necessidade de limitar o aquecimento global a 1,5° C acima dos níveis pré-industriais — um objectivo que promete concretizar justamente essa transformação. A realização deste objectivo exigirá a superação de desafios políticos graves, que se traduzem no facto de algumas pessoas defenderem soluções que acabarão por ser mais prejudiciais do que benéficas.

Uma estratégia que ganhou muita dinâmica centra-se na necessidade de desenvolver intervenções tecnológicas de grande escala para controlar o termóstato mundial. Os proponentes das tecnologias de geo-engenharia argumentam que as medidas de adaptação e mitigação convencionais não estão a reduzir as emissões de forma suficientemente rápida para evitar um aquecimento perigoso. As tecnologias como a "captura e armazenamento de carbono" (CCS), argumentam, são necessárias para limitar os danos e o sofrimento humano.

O Painel Intergovernamental sobre Alterações Climáticas parece concordar. No seu quinto relatório de avaliação, cria os seus cenários para o cumprimento dos objectivos em matéria de clima definidos em Paris em torno do conceito de "emissões negativas" — ou seja, a capacidade de extrair o excesso de dióxido de carbono da atmosfera.

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