Hacia un objetivo climático viable

BERLÍN – En diciembre pasado, 195 gobiernos llegaron en París a un consenso sobre cómo limitar el cambio climático en las próximas décadas. Sin embargo, como suele ocurrir cuando se trata de las Naciones Unidas, en el acuerdo se formalizaron grandes ambiciones que se volvieron mucho más modestas a la hora de manifestar compromisos de acciones concretas.

El acuerdo climático de París se pone por objetivo mantener el calentamiento global “bien por debajo de los dos grados Celsius sobre los niveles preindustriales”. Más aún, a pedido de los países más vulnerables, se añadió texto prometiendo “impulsar iniciativas para limitar el aumento de la temperatura a 1,5º”.

El problema es que estas aspiraciones no coinciden con los compromisos expresados en el tratado. En su lugar, el sistema de promesas voluntarias de mitigación que este contiene permitirá el ascenso de las emisiones globales hasta 2030, probablemente llevando a un calentamiento de entre 3 y 3,5º para 2100. Parece un ejemplo perfecto de inconsistencia en la formulación de políticas.

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