通向可行气候目标

柏林—去年12月,在巴黎,195国政府形成了关于在未来几十年里如何遏制气候变化的共识。但是,和联合国的其他事项一样,所达成的协议目标宏大,但落到实际行动义务(commitment)上就显得平庸了许多。

巴黎气候协定包括一个将全球变暖幅度限制在“显著低于前工业化水平以上2摄氏度”的承诺(pledge)。此外,在全球最脆弱国家的要求下,还加上了承诺“采取行动将升温幅度限制在1.5℃”的字句。

麻烦在于这些愿望并没有条约所呼吁的义务与之匹配。相反,该协议的自愿遏制承诺制度允许全球排放继续增长直到2030年,这可能导致2100年全球变暖3—3.5℃。这堪称决策不一致的经典例子。

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