Michael Spence, a Nobel laureate in economics, is Professor of Economics Emeritus and a former dean of the Graduate School of Business at Stanford University. He is Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution, Senior Adviser to General Atlantic, and Chairman of the firm’s Global Growth Institute. He serves on the Academic Committee at Luohan Academy, and chairs the Advisory Board of the Asia Global Institute. He was Chairman of the independent Commission on Growth and Development, an international body that from 2006-10 analyzed opportunities for global economic growth, and is the author of The Next Convergence: The Future of Economic Growth in a Multispeed World (Macmillan Publishers, 2012).
发自米兰——今时今日的许多经济评论文章都将重点放在了“差异”上:尽管一大批股市指数都已处于或接近历史高位,但更大范围的经济却仍在有史以来最严重的经济衰退中挣扎。虽然罗素2000指数相比去年同期仍下跌5.4%,但标准普尔500和罗素3000指数已完全恢复至疫情前水平,而以数字和科技企业为主的纳斯达克指数则上涨了约26%。
许多人因此得出结论说市场已经跟经济现实脱节。但如果换一个角度来看的话,今天的股票市场可能在某种程度上体现了被“疫情经济”所放大的强大潜在趋势。要知道股票价格和市场指数只是衡量资本所有者价值创造的指标,跟劳动、有形和无形资本都在其中发挥作用的更广泛经济价值创造是不一样的。
此外市场反映的是资本的未来预期实际回报率,而在衡量劳动收入现值时则根本没有对应的前瞻性指数。因此原则上如果经济预期将出现大幅反弹,则资本和劳务收入虽然都可能出现类似的上涨,却只有资本的未来预期能被立刻体现出来。
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