La sombra iraní en Pakistán

Ahora que el futuro de Pakistán y su presidente, Pervez Musharraf, es incierto tras el asesinato de Benazir Bhutto, se están encontrando paralelos con la caída del Sha y la revolución islámica en Irán en 1979. Una vez más, un autócrata “por-estadounidense” parece estar perdiendo rápidamente su control del poder, mientras que su aliado, Estados Unidos, apenas lo apoya a medias. La élite liberal y la intelligentsia atacan al dictador confiados en que su país está preparado para una democracia secular.

La lección evidente que se debe aprender de 1979 es que Estados Unidos dejó imprudentemente que toda su relación estratégica con Irán recayera en un dictador impopular. Cuando su régimen se desmoronó, desapareció también la capacidad de Estados Unidos de cumplir sus intereses ahí.

Pero la revolución iraní guarda otra lección para los liberales pakistaníes: obsesionada con la expulsión del Sha, la intelligentsia se engañaba sobre su propia sociedad y su potencial para triunfar mediante una revuelta política abrupta. Una vez que el Sha se fue, la minoría radical que estaba dispuesta a luchar y morir por su causa acabó con la “mayoría moderada” y en muy poco tiempo estableció el gobierno islámico.

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