Пакистан и Иран: тени прошлого и уроки истории

Так как будущее как Пакистана, так и его президента Первеза Мушаррафа остается неопределенным в результате убийства Беназир Бхутто, напрашиваются параллели между падением шаха в 1979 году и Исламской революцией в Иране. Снова "проамериканский" автократ, по-видимому, быстро теряет власть, в то время как его американский союзник в нерешительности взирает на это. Либеральная элита и интеллигенция выступают против диктатора, уверенные в том, что их страна должна стать светской демократией.

Очевидный урок, вытекающий из 1979 года, состоит том, что Америка возложила всю тяжесть своих стратегических отношений с Ираном на плечи непопулярного диктатора. Когда режим этого диктатора пал, то вместе с этим и Америка утратила возможность реализовывать свои интересы в этой стране.

Но Иранская революция содержит еще один урок для пакистанских либералов: будучи одержимой стремлением отстранить шаха от власти, иранская интеллигенция имела лишь иллюзорное представление о своем собственном обществе и о потенциальной возможности интеллигенции одержать победу путем внезапного политического переворота. После падения шаха радикальное меньшинство, которое желало сражаться и умереть за свое дело, истребило "умеренное меньшинство", сразу же установив в стране исламское правление.

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