Pakistan : le spectre de l’Iran

Alors que le Pakistan et son président, Pervez Musharraf, sont dans une situation précaire à la suite de l’assassinat de Benazir Bhutto, certaines analogies avec la chute du Shah et la Révolution islamique de 1979 en Iran sont évoquées. Une fois de plus, un autocrate « proaméricain », que les Etats-Unis ne soutiennent d’ailleurs qu’à contrecœur, semble rapidement perdre son emprise sur le pouvoir. L’élite libérale et l’intelligentsia pakistanaises s’insurgent contre le dictateur, persuadées que leur pays est sur la voie d’une démocratie laïque.

La leçon manifeste de 1979 est que les Etats-Unis ont inconsidérément fait porter la totalité de leur relation stratégique avec l’Iran sur les épaules d’un dictateur impopulaire. La capacité de l’administration américaine à faire valoir ses intérêts dans le pays a disparu avec la chute du régime.

La révolution iranienne offre une autre leçon pour les libéraux pakistanais : obsédés par l’éviction du Shah, les intellectuels iraniens se faisaient des illusions sur l’état de leur propre société et sur leur capacité à sortir victorieux d’un soulèvement politique soudain. Une fois le Shah en exil, la minorité radicale qui était prête à se battre et à mourir pour sa cause a englouti la « majorité modérée », en établissant l’ordre islamique dans la foulée.

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