Íránský stín nad Pákistánem

Jak se Pákistán a jeho prezident Parvíz Mušaraf v důsledku atentátu na Bénazír Bhuttovou utápějí v nejistotě, črtají se paralely s pádem šáha a islámskou revolucí v Íránu roku 1979. Opět tu máme „proamerického“ autokrata, jemuž překotně vyklouzává moc z rukou, a americký spojenec mu jen váhavě stojí po boku. Liberální elita a inteligence proti diktátorovi ostře vystupují, přesvědčeny, že jejich země má našlápnuto k sekulární demokracii.

Zjevným poučením, které je třeba si z roku 1979 vzít, je, že Amerika celý svůj strategický vztah s Íránem pošetile vložila na bedra nepopulárního diktátora. Když se režim rozdrolil, totéž se přihodilo americké schopnosti uskutečňovat tu své zájmy.

Íránská revoluce ale skýtá ponaučení i pákistánským liberálům: íránská inteligence, posedlá vyhnáním šáha, se nechala ošálit iluzemi o společnosti, v níž žila, a o své schopnosti vyjít z náhlého politického pozdvižení vítězně. Jakmile šáh odešel, radikální menšina, ochotná za svou věc bojovat a zemřít, „umírněnou většinu“ zhltla a zakrátko ustavila islamistický řád.

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